No. of Recommendations: 5
Netflix valuation is starting to come into potential buying ranges now
Here are some historical numbers (hard to compare fast growing stage to current stage, but still a decent starting point)
Quarter REVENUE EPS ($) Avg Stock Price ($) P/E Ratio (TTM) P/S Ratio (TTM)
Q1 2021 $7.16B $3.75 $530.15 87.2x 9.2x
Q2 2021 $7.34B $2.97 $512.40 66.8x 8.6x
Q3 2021 $7.48B $3.19 $568.20 62.4x 8.8x
Q4 2021 $7.71B $1.33 $630.90 52.8x 8.2x
Q1 2022 $7.87B $3.53 $390.25 34.5x 5.8x
Q2 2022 $7.97B $3.20 $198.60 17.5x 2.8x
Q3 2022 $7.93B $3.10 $228.40 21.8x 3.2x
Q4 2022 $7.85B $0.12 $288.75 26.0x 4.0x
Q1 2023 $8.16B $2.88 $328.60 36.8x 4.4x
Q2 2023 $8.19B $3.29 $385.10 46.4x 5.2x
Q3 2023 $8.54B $3.73 $422.30 37.0x 5.4x
Q4 2023 $8.83B $2.11 $450.80 39.9x 5.9x
Q1 2024 $9.37B $5.28 $575.40 41.3x 7.0x
Q2 2024 $9.56B $4.88 $632.10 41.4x 7.3x
Q3 2024 $9.83B $5.40 $678.90 39.4x 7.5x
Q4 2024 $10.25B $4.27 $815.50 43.9x 8.8x
Q1 2025 $10.54B $6.12 $912.40 43.0x 9.4x
Q2 2025 $11.08B $7.15 $985.20 55.6x 9.8x
Q3 2025 $11.51B $5.87 $1,198.90 48.7x 11.2x
Q4 2025 (Post-split) $12.05B $0.56* $93.76 38.1x 8.8x
Q1 2026 $12.25B $1.23 $94.60 26.5x 7.7x
Q2 2026 $12.56B $0.80 $76.35 22.6x 6.2x
Q3 2026 $12.87B $0.87 $73.40 21.2x 5.8x
Q4 2026 (Guide) ~$13.44B ~$0.67 ~$67.10 ~18.8x ~5.3x
Are they done growing? Hard to say - they have pulled a lot of levers the past few years to squeeze out every last drop from their existing customer base; I am not sure they have a lot of additional options left.
That said using EPS 15x as a floor; the downside seems limited they can probably earn $3.75 in the next 4 quarters, so $55-$60 seems like the potential downside (assuming their business model doesn't implode)
tecmo
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