Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of FKBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of FKBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Falling Knives
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (77) |
Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 1166 
Subject: Re: FKA: DG
Date: 07/01/25 1:05 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 4
This is only a problem if you are selling AND
1) You want to make a purchase in a different currency
or
2) It starts to impact inflation on imported goods
For most people, the currency fluctuations are just noise; and likely in the "too hard" bucket to properly mitigate.


Well, #1 is certainly true for asset prices, as are all price movements: only the prices the day you buy and the day you sell matter. But remember that salaries are affected, which doesn't involve selling assets. The US minimum wage just fell, for example.

A whole lot of #2 is pretty much inevitable, just slowly. Assuming the dollar fall is lasting, a big question.

Mainly the effect is "it really is a real loss of wealth, just not very obvious to folks living surrounded by the dollar world". Everybody with a fixed USD salary just took a true pay cut, but it isn't visible because their barbers and dentists did too. But both of them will be buying stuff from other countries, or buying services from people who had to buy inputs from elsewhere, so most of it will show up as inflation that slowly spreads through the economy.

It probably won't be one-for-one, as some of the pay cuts and value drops may simply stick around, notably real estate. An apartment in NYC is a lot cheaper than it was a few months ago in terms of the general purchasing power that it would take to buy it. For a US business which has as one of its indirect inputs the cost of US land, their cost of production basis may not rise as much as the dollar falls. Conversely for a retailer selling goods which are overwhelmingly imported, the inflationary effect will show up very quickly.

Offhand I rather expect a temporary bounce in the US dollar, maybe in the next few months, before setting into some longer term weakening trend. With about 51/49 confidence : )

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 1,155 posts about Falling Knives. The article-length ones it recommended most:
FKA: DG · 25 recs · 2023
MTD – A Masterclass in Un-Swiss Capital Allocation · 17 recs · 2026
Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) · 15 recs · 2026
Coloplast (CLPBY) · 12 recs · 2026
TSLA · 12 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (77) |


Announcements
Falling Knives FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of FK | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community