*                         6/10     6/17     6/24     7/1/24
S&P 500 Index             5346.99  5431.60  5464.62  5460.48
Trailing 12 month PE      27.42    27.81    28.29    28.23
Trail Earnings yield      3.65%    3.60%    3.53%    3.45%
Forward 12 month PE       22.92    23.22    24.24    24.14
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.36%    4.31%    4.12%    4.14%
90 day tbill yield        5.52     5.51     5.49     5.48
10 year tbond yield       4.43%    4.20%    4.25%    4.36%
Arezi Ratio               1.51     1.53     1.55     1.55
Fed Ratio                 1.02     0.98     1.03     1.05

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 43%
stocks, 57% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 13%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 64%.

Elan

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