No. of Recommendations: 42
Latest update on my bottom detectors:
2025-03-28 No signal
2025-03-31 Minor bottom signal
2025-04-01 No signal
2025-04-02 No signal
2025-04-03 Minor bottom signal
2025-04-04 Minor bottom signal
2025-04-07 One of my two major bottom detectors triggered, but not the best and oldest "classic" one with all the post discovery history.
Since these signals often trigger several days in a row, the usual rule of thumb is to wait for the first day WITHOUT a signal before becoming a buyer.
However, I see that the futures market is up a whole lot in pre-market, so today (April 8) seems likely to be a bounce day, so for the slightly nimble/aggressive there is a case to buy now, at least for a trade.
Recap of the meanings: the minor bottom signals tend to be pretty good for a bounce of up to a month or so on average, but not much predictive power beyond that time frame.
The classic major bottom detectors are rare and have historically led to good returns for a year, even two on average.
The newer major bottom signal that triggered yesterday could perhaps be considered in the middle...it might not be THE bottom, but it's pretty bottom like. Most recently it gave signals in May, July and September 2022, the last one being 2022-09-29.
The classic major bottom signal (the one with the great history) is pretty stubborn--it would probably need another four bad days before it triggered. To overgeneralize, it is a little uncertain about current situation because, other than yesterday, too many securities have still been doing well. As a result it doesn't smell like capitulation yet.
Jim
