Why isn't oil at $150 a barrel and climbing?

Because we haven't yet hit the point where physical supplies are constrained, and futures markets incorporate the non-trivial chance that the Strait might reopen in the future. Not because the Strait is open now.

And one more time: we haven't tried to force our way through.

It's not about "forcing our way through." This isn't about whether the Strait can be transited by U.S. warships. It's about whether conditions permit civilian commercial cargo vessels to safely traverse the waterway.

The goal of Operation Project Freedom was to enable merchant ships to once again freely go through the Strait. That goal has failed. Sneaking two or three ships per day through the Strait doesn't make it a success. That means that 97-98% of commercial traffic is still blocked.

You can't change that by protecting merchant vessels from Zodiac ships. You need to take away the threat of land-based drones and missiles. Which almost certainly requires ground troops to control the Iranian coastline, not "forcing our way through" the Strait.

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