No. of Recommendations: 7
So the base case would be for Google to continue its slow revenue growth - probably hitting $300B towards the end of 2024 (calendar). If we put a 5x multiplier on that we get a market cap of $1.5T - basically flat for the next 6 quarters.
Hi Tecmo! Your name reminds me of Tecmo Superbowl on Nintendo. :) Fun game
A quick thought on your valuation comments: if growth stays so anemic as this hypothetical, then I think we'll see that multiplier come down below the 4.5x level instead of climbing back to 5. Google has historically been a phenomenal growth story, so if that growth has dried up, the historic premium people have paid for the stock will eventually come down.
When I bought the stock a year ago or so, I sure wasn't anticipating sub 5% growth for any length of time, though any company can have lulls.
