which would almost certainly be Harris

Disagree, because her approvals are even lower than hers, and she has shown no great aptitude for climbing out of the hole. She may be fine, even competent, but she would not be the chosen one.

Better would be an open convention, which would electrify the nation and give Democrats something to be passionate about. As it stands there are only a few potential candidates who could carry the ball. Newsom, Whittmer, and Buttigieg come to mind. Maybe Sanders, although he’s even older but more vigorous) than Biden.

Other possibilities are governors from Pennsylvania or elsewhere, but none have a national profile. This is not about “being nice to Joe” or even to Harris, it’s about what’s most likely to carry the election.

(Some of it also depends on who Trump picks as VP. Two big helpers would be Rubio (because it would peel off Hispanics), or Haley (because it would solidify the fracture), but I expect it to be JD Vance becausehe’s always been a sycophant, unlike the other two I mentioned.)