Various strategies for investing around the end of the month were explored in MI-land some 20 years ago. Back at the beginning of 2022 I looked into the performance of various ETFs at the end/beginning of the month. INDL, which is a 2x-long ETF for Indian stocks, backtested well. It would seem to be a relatively low-risk way to invest in a developing market. INDL started in the spring of 2010; here are the results since then.

Entry is at the close of the fourth day before to the last day of the previous month. Exit is at the close of the second day of the current month. Thus, for July 2024 one would have bought on the close of 6/24 and sold at the close of 7/2 for a 3.6% gain. Total time in the market would be six days.

Here are the average monthly returns for each year (not compounded).

       # of    Ave                    Buy &
      months  Return                  Hold
2010     9     3.0%   9 x 3.0 = 27%    28%
2011    12     3.5   12 x 3.5 = 42%   -67
2012    12     4.9   12 x 4.9 = 58%    21
2013    12     0.4   12 x 0.4 =  4%   -31
2014    12     2.2   12 x 2.2 = 27%    46
2015    12     3.1   12 x 3.1 = 37%   -33
2016    12     4.8   12 x 4.8 = 58%   -17
2017    12     3.4   12 x 3.4 = 40%   127
2018    12     0.9   12 x 0.9 = 11%   -35
2019    12     0.6   12 x 0.6 =  7%     2
2020    12     3.5   12 x 3.5 = 42%   -36
2021    12     2.7   12 x 2.7 = 33%    36
2022    12     3.2   12 x 3.2 = 38%   -23
2023    12     1.6   12 x 1.6 = 19%    24
2024     9     1.0    9 x 1.0 =  9%    33

DB2

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