*                         5/6      5/13     5/20     5/27/24
S&P 500 Index             5127.79  5222.68  5303.27  5304.72
Trailing 12 month PE      26.38    26.82    27.18    27.14
Trail Earnings yield      3.79%    3.73%    3.68%    3.68%
Forward 12 month PE       22.21    22.57    22.85    22.80
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.50%    4.43%    4.38%    4.39%
90 day tbill yield        5.45     5.47     5.46     5.46
10 year tbond yield       4.50%    4.50%    4.42%    4.46%
Arezi Ratio               1.44     1.47     1.48     1.48
Fed Ratio                 1.00     1.02     1.01     1.02

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 46%
stocks, 54% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 16%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 66%.

Elan

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