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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Personal Finance / Macroeconomic Trends & Risks
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Author: ajm101   😊 😞
Number: of 4460 
Subject: Re: History lesson, anyone?
Date: 03/01/26 2:51 PM
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Did I make that distinction?

I gave him a complement. He had an investment philosophy that performed well and hit a particularly fantastic stretch when ARR and NDR were in peak vogue and SaaS was in its golden age, that is when he put up the truly gaudy numbers. He's clearly a successful investor just based on what he's publicly posted.

When the SaaS gravy train ended, he struggled. BILL, ENPH, UPST were notable duds and his timing into a number of other positions was not great. If you tried to question a position, you were run out of the board. The dynamic led to his followers frequently taking losses on this even after he sold a stock. It was sad to watch the various ephemeral board luminaries cargo-cult his style, post the characteristic monthly portfolio updates, but be unable to emulate Saul's ability to sell losing positions. He was supremely confident in a stock until he wasn't.

He never posted audited results, and for my part I didn't entirely trust his full track record. He gave better ex-post facto rationales for his decisions than merited.

Back to the original point, Saul's board grew so fast because he put up a few years of ~100% returns by completely nailing the SaaS trend around 2015. He posted freely about this and a lot of people newer to investing piggy-backed his picks and did really well for a time. It created a durable community, if not a particularly healthy one. To the point about about bots, when it got very popular for (business) momentum picks, I got the distinct impression the board was being astroturfed and sock-puppeted but I have no proof.
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