If you say so. My consistent position has been "let's play this all out".

If you were to take that position consistently, then we wouldn't be having this conversation. But you suggested that the fact that some ships had gotten through the strait meant that it looks like those suggesting that Operation Project Freedom would be a failure were mistaken. That's not a "let's see what happens in the future" comment. It's a statement assessing what's happened. To date, it's been a failure. If you want to say that we have to let this all play out before making that assessment, that's fine - but then we can't say that it looks like the original projections that it would fail are mistaken. Yet. Though I remain confident in my original prediction that naval power can't open the strait without ground forces seizing the coast, and that we're not going to do that.

Everyone on this board - including you - has assumed that my position is 100% in lockstep with Trump. It isn't, and no, I'm not inclined to explain the differences. Maybe sometime. But not now.

I have never assumed your position is 100% in lockstep with Trump. In fact, I fully expect that you'll roundly criticize him if he ends up agreeing to the terms that are being floated for the ceasefire deal. In this conversation, though, you've mostly been lining up with what he's claimed - namely, that the 'Dark Fleet' accomplished something meaningful in terms of Strait access. And that's where I think you - and he - are wrong.