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Stocks A to Z / Stocks F / Fairfax Financial (FFH)
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Author: ultimatespinach   😊 😞
Number: of 43 
Subject: FY 2023 results
Date: 02/15/2024 5:26 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 6
Fairfax reported impressive results for FY 2023 after the bell today, calling it "the best year in our history."

Net earnings were U.S. $4,381.8 million, or $173.20 per diluted share after payment of preferred dividends. That compares with $3,374.2 million and $131.37 in FY 2022.

Book value per share at Dec. 31 was $939.65, compared to $762.28 a year earlier, up 23%.

At today's closing price of $1,041.52, it is trading at 1.1x book.

2023 was the best year in our history with net earnings of $4.4 billion, producing record adjusted operating income
of $3.9 billion (or operating income of $5.7 billion including the benefit of discounting, net of a risk adjustment on
claims) from our property and casualty insurance and reinsurance operations, reflecting records achieved in our core
underwriting performance, interest and dividends of $1.7 billion and increased favourable results from profit of
associates. All of our major insurance and reinsurance companies achieved combined ratios below 100% for a
consolidated combined ratio of 93.2% and underwriting profit of $1.5 billion, on an undiscounted basis. Gross
premiums written grew by 4.8% or $1.3 billion to $28.9 billion, while net premiums written grew by 3.5%,
primarily reflecting new business and incremental rate increases in certain lines of business.


https://www.fairfax.ca/press-releases/financial-re...

Conference call is tomorrow morning.



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Author: nola622 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 43 
Subject: Re: FY 2023 results
Date: 02/16/2024 11:33 AM
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So basically the company is trading around $23.5 Billion USD market cap this morning, around 1.1x book value, and guided to a likely base-case earnings floor of around $4 Billion in annual operating income for each of the next several years. $2 Billion in interest and dividend income, $1.2 Billion normalized underwriting profit, and around $750 million in profit from associates (equity accounted type stuff). No guarantees, of course - there could be enormous claims events and investment losses - but we are not counting the possibility of investment gains here either.

Consolidated combined ratios are good. Individual subsidiary combined ratios are all good. They are showing underwriting discipline by declining unprofitable business (and returning $340m in unearned premium to a client for terminating a residential property quota share at Odyssey Re that didn't look like a good risk anymore).

Reserving has been conservative / redundant, with consistent reserve releases and positive development over time.

International insurance growth has been phenomenal, profitable, and will continue to grow strongly in 2024 because of the addition of $2.4 Billion in premiums at newly acquired/consolidated Gulf Insurance - GIC. They also take over Gulf Insurance's investment portfolio to manage while getting a very favorable "owner financing" / pay over time using the acquired company's own earnings to make the payments - type of deal. It pays to be a good partner.

We have determined that Carson Block is not an expert in IFRS accounting (or Indian GAAP accounting).

Carson Block does not think Exco's carrying value is appropriate at 3.5x earnings, or a 30% earnings yield or whatever.

Carson Block thinks it was a crime to sell 10% of a single subsidiary (to a friendly partner, with the option to repurchase it for a known price) to raise $900 million cash in order to tender for 7% of the shares of the entire holding company for cancellation (at less than half of today's market price).
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Author: ultimatespinach   😊 😞
Number: of 43 
Subject: Re: FY 2023 results
Date: 02/17/2024 8:56 PM
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Well, that was one of the more entertaining earnings calls I've listened to lately.

After the normal intro summarizing the Q4 and full-year performance, Fairfax management voluntarily took up the subject of the Muddy Waters report, responding at length and considerable detail prior to the q&a.

As part of his rebuttal, Prem Watsa said that to his knowledge Muddy Waters never contacted Fairfax with questions or issues. Instead, he said, it went to CNBC to publicize its claims during the quiet period leading up to the company's earnings release, implying it was taking advantage of Fairfax's inability to respond in detail to make a quick profit on market reaction to the short report's claims.

Muddy Waters says on its website that it remains short Fairfax. On Feb. 15, the day of the earnings release and one week after publication of the short report, Muddy Waters published five questions for Fairfax. The site's terms of use note that all content is copyrighted and prohibit quoting from it on any other site, directing users to post only its web address so that others can access the materials there:

https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/research/

Seeking Alpha published a transcript of the earnings call. The portion devoted to rebuttal of the short report was long enough that I think reproducing it here could violate Seeking Alpha's copyright. A subscription might be required to access the transcript:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4671013-fairfax-f...

Carson Block, the founder of Muddy Waters, was on the call and was allowed to ask a question. I transcribed that short portion of the call myself:

Operator: Our next question comes from Carson Block with Muddy Waters. Your line is open.

Carson Block: Hi, I appreciate you calling on me. Um, I guess with only one question. We published, uh, we published five questions yesterday, and the first one that we’re asking is for disclosure regarding associates that have been on the balance sheet at any time since Jan. 1 of 2020. To summarize what we’re looking for is basically disclosure by associates of cash that’s been invested, versus cash that’s come back, and also profits that have been booked, as well as contingent liabilities arising, say, with the disposals. Will you be disclosing these associate transactions?

Prem Watsa: Thank you very much, Mr. Block, for your question. Jen, would you answer that?

Jen Allen: Sure. Our disclosure with respect to the associates is disclosed in respect of those transactions as applicable in our annual report, and in accordance with the IFRS framework that Fairfax follows.

Carson Block: Well, I mean, rather than going for the bare minimum that IFRS requires, I mean, why not provide transparent, enhanced disclosure to be very investor friendly? I mean, that’s, obviously, you can do the bare minimum, but why leave it there?

Prem Watsa: So, Mr. Block, just for your information, we’ve taken a lot of time to go through the allegations you’ve made. We’ve made the point very clearly that we will not tolerate false and misleading information. That’s the reason we’ve taken time to explain all of that to our shareholders. And so we appreciate your question. Next question, please.


In fairness, I should mention that Mr. Block played a salutary role in exposing a series of fraudulent Chinese companies listed on U.S. exchanges in the aftermath of the great financial crisis. His role is covered in the 2017 documentary The China Hustle, which is available on the Hulu streaming service.

This is a rather different case. Mr. Block's allegations of fraud against a variety of Chinese listings offered evidence easily understood by non-accountants of physical inspections revealing little or no activity at company sites supposedly doing hundreds of millions of dollars worth of business.

In the case of Fairfax he seems to acknowledge that the company's reporting is adequate under IFRS rules, but wants more disclosure. I am not familiar enough with the company's history to be able to follow the back and forth on particular transactions, but it's hard to argue with Fairfax's recent results, particularly when compared with Markel, which just reported a combined ratio in excess of 100% for the same year Fairfax's was 93.2%.
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Author: DTB   😊 😞
Number: of 43 
Subject: Re: FY 2023 results
Date: 02/20/2024 7:10 PM
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Carson Block: Well, I mean, rather than going for the bare minimum that IFRS requires, I mean, why not provide transparent, enhanced disclosure to be very investor friendly? I mean, that’s, obviously, you can do the bare minimum, but why leave it there?

Prem Watsa: So, Mr. Block, just for your information, we’ve taken a lot of time to go through the allegations you’ve made. We’ve made the point very clearly that we will not tolerate false and misleading information. That’s the reason we’ve taken time to explain all of that to our shareholders. And so we appreciate your question. Next question, please.


This response is fine, although I would have liked it more if he had just said that Fairfax had responded to all the accusations, and that its book value marks meet the standards of IFRS reporting and are validated by its external accountants, but that for competitive reasons, the company does not publicly disclose details beyond legal requirements, just like all its competitors who also do not provide such details on every transaction. No need to say they won’t tolerate such questions - they have done more than tolerate them, they have reviewed their accounting and answered all the questions patiently and thoroughly, and there is no advantage to the company or to its shareholders for them to reveal even more.

But anyways, I guess the market has pretty much spoken, discounting the Muddy Waters accusations.

But given the positive financials for the quarter, I am a bit surprised the share price remains at around $1000 US now, with the company plausibly expecting $150 earnings for both 2024 and 2025. $1000 is about 1.1x book, compared to Berkshire’s ~ 1.5x likely year end book, but book value gives no credit to Fairfax for its relatively huge float, and with combined ratios solidly under 100 now, I think today’s price is still a great opportunity for Fairfax to use its cash flooding in to substantially reduce its share count.
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