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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: TGMark   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Buying Long Dated Calls
Date: 07/15/24 9:30 PM
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I'd suggest you read some of Jim's posts on buying deep ITM LEAP calls on stocks like BRK.B. Or just reading up on DITM LEAPs as a strategy.

Believe me, I pay a lot of attention to Jim's posts. For example http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...
I watched bitcoin (GBTC) come down and down and down. When it hovered around $7-$8 about 18 months ago, I remember thinking this could be a speculative bet.
There was proverbial blood in the streets, worries about regulations, GBTC not being approved for ETF status, and on and on and on.
No good news at all. The question was, will it survive?

In hindsight, if one loaded up on various LEAPS at that time, it would have worked out extremely well.
There have been others I've watched that have run into very rough patches, and then recovered over time.
And of course many that have not.

So of course, the underlying in this case may not recover, or may partially recover, or could fully recover (very unlikely IMO).
The point is that you can get a lot of leverage when things look horrendously bad.
It is mostly a bet, but it is also a company and industry that I am very familiar with and have at least a bit of insight into.
You would not bet the farm on it, but a small percentage of the portfolio in the hopes of a recovery, could make sense.

Most lose their entire account. All $1000.

The amount I was contemplating is about 3% of my port. If the company goes bankrupt, it would not be nice, but tolerable.

Mark

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