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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21943 
Subject: OT: SAP
Date: 03/20/26 11:17 AM
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Nothing to do with Berkshire other than a possible whiff of value. Has anybody looked at SAP SE? Trades as SAP in the US, and also as SAP in euros in Germany.

Europe's largest software firm, perhaps the world's largest enterprise software provider. Trading at $176.41 down from a high of $313.28 last July. Down 27% just year-to-date, a prime victim of the SaaSpocalypse.

Because, well, obviously nobody will ever need to buy or lease software again, they'll just vibe it into existence with their favourite LLMs because AI is going to take over everything. Yet of course their clients won't ever buy any of SAP's own AI products and there will be no productivity gain for SAP's in-house programmers because obviously all the AI stuff is just hype.

As with many software firms they're in the late stages of a switch from lumpy perpetual license sales to subscription-only, which causes a one time hit to revenues and profits but can lead to very nice things after that, witness Adobe: revenues flattish 2010-2015 which is I think when they were in the midst of the transition, but growth on most metrics of 20-25%/year since, and net margins have doubled.

FWIW, median trailing P/E in the last decade about 27. Current price is 21 times consensus EPS for 2026, and 17.8 times consensus for next year. Barring an actual SaaSpocalypse (rather that merely the fear of it), growth expectations have been good. It might count as a good business at a fair price. (I would have said "very good business", which may be true, except I don't like the level of stock based comp)

Jim

Threads from late January on Falling Knives mungofitch writes on FKA: SAP SE
...and on Non-US Stocks mungofitch writes on SAP SE

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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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