Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (12) |
Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
  😊 😞

Number: of 6131 
Subject: An old monetary indicator
Date: 08/19/26 7:13 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 15
This is something I found in my old files.
https://www.stonewellfunds.com/SweetSpotIndicator....

Perhaps someone wants to try to reconstruct it? The data aren't hard to find.

I only got as far as determining that the smoothing they use isn't a simple obvious SMA, and of course the lag you choose is a function of the smoothing method, so you have to try to match the number of squiggles and the approximate crossover dates.

This isn't a market timing model by itself, but at least "by inspection" it seems to be an excellent omen for "you have a tailwind for being in a bull market". What I like about it is that it's pretty slow, and that it's old enough that it would be interesting to see if it's any better than random since then. Monetary conditions don't seem to mean quite what they used to.

The (unsmoothed) two year rate recently crossed cleanly above the policy rate five months ago and has kept rising, so it would appear that a bullish transition will occur soon.
At stockcharts.com you can graph this as $UST2Y-$$FEDRATE

Jim
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to mungofitch here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (12) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community