The challenge I have is that predictions are difficult to make, especially about the future (thanks Yogi).

While the war in Iran, coupled with that in Yemen is potentially disruptive, the "powers that be" have, so far, successfully juggled the situation well enough to prevent a huge wave. That may change "shortly after the election" as the US is moving a third aircraft carrier to the region - and there's no purpose to big boys having big toys unless it's to play with them. We have been expending ammo like it's an unlimited resource since we originally bombed the Houthis in support of Israel, then poured huge amounts into Israel during their Gaza campaign, then, again, expending huge quantities on our Iran adventure -- recently coupled by a promise to replenish Israel's expended supply. This is to the detriment, not only of Ukraine, built also the rest of the US's allies which now have to wait for the US to replenish their own stock before honoring their export commitments. As I see it, the major positive event would be Trump declaring that we have won because Iran has promised not to build a nuclear bomb. The biggest risk is that we attack and Iran does the "Samson Smash" and kills a load of US serve personnel. In the mean time, we now have a period of time when we are dramatically weakened which allows China to potentially become more aggressive on a geographic basis. Unless China tries to invade Taiwan (IMO a low probability event), at some point a stalemate in the Gulf will create enough drag on the US economy to cause a downturn (the forces fighting inflation are juxtaposed against those trying to reduce interest rates and the best defense is hard assets).

Anyhow, the ultimate challenge is to decide how to apply a bias for the effects on the stock market of an election which is so FUBAR'ed as to leave the establishment of a newly formulated Congress up in the air. We have a head of the executive branch of government which, supported by a sympathetic (or politically chastened) majority in Congress as well as a conservative Supreme Court who has literally encouraged cheating to win the upcoming election (supported by previous behavior) is breaking the government that we were taught to respect into pieces. Whether it was putting Musk's DOIGE in charge of the wrecking ball (and data) or using his son-in-law and Wycoff as "unpaid volunteers" who, along with the relatives of cabinet members are using the trips to research ways to personally make money, the business of government is clearly no longer to work for the benefit of the general population - and my fear is that the sanctity of elections is about to simply become the next victim. In a month or so, we should find out if we now resemble Germany of the 1930's where the rules of government al law and custom simply no longer matter.

Judging the likelihood of that potential set of actions, along with both the social and financial implications (cutting through all the noise and BS) is what I am trying to accomplish. It is obviously a finite possibility, but moving from the qualitative to thee quantitative requires a huge amount off soul-searching (along with some level of planning).

I have not arrived at a number yet and frankly am not sure how to unemotionally do so.

Jeff