I think trying to outperform the S&P on a total return basis using any reasonable, unleveraged combination of bonds and equities is unlikely to succeed (I never use the word "impossible" about investing). My preference is for a slow-twitch timing system like BCC, which mostly keeps you in the market, but gives you a decent chance to avoid the biggest bears.

Just my experience. I have been investing for a while now, and I have managed to dodge a few bullets. Believing that I have a decent chance to avoid the worst bears has also given me confidence to adopt pretty aggressive strategies when the market is doing well.

For me personally, it's owning bonds during a bull market that would keep me up at night. I am now of an age when buying bonds is what I'm supposed to be doing, but I just can't.

Baltassar