Thanks for the detailed analysis. I don't know that much about XOM in spite of the fact that my wife worked for them, and my uncle was president of Mobil.

In my simplistic view, I figure XOM is cheap when it is priced the same as a barrel of oil. I also assume that as you say, they will defend the dividend-- my uncle always said, that is company culture. I backed up the truck when oil and XOM were in the $30 range in 2020, and dividends were near 10%. I sold when oil was in the $80 range, with XOM lagging a bit. I sold too soon but did fine.

Currently there is a big gap, XOM at 110 and oil at 71. I worry that XOM is not the only company bringing production up and costs down. People like Tex tend to be good at what they do, and a glut is a possibility if we see slowdown in China, cars keep getting more efficient, and the middle east doesn't meltdown.