Excellent post, Ears. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

Yeah, I think you're right that GAAP profitability in 2023 looks highly unlikely. As you document, there will have to be BIG changes to either the amount of business they do or the fixed costs they spend.

Regarding their loan interest you wrote that you don't include it, since it's not a core business, and "As a practical matter, the income from those loans is usually more than offset by the change in value of the loans, so excluding them should have minimal impact on our outcomes." At some point, though, in the hopefully not-to-distant future, we can hope that interest rates drop and the change to value in the loans on the books will be come a positive. Which still won't be core business, but it could provide a substantial kicker to income for a little while.

Nice graphs!