I never checked this before, what an embarrassment, “ As of early 2026, Kalshi prediction markets are indicating that the U.S. national debt is projected to hit extremely high levels before the end of the Trump administration (January 2029). The betting markets are specifically looking at milestones for total debt, with high confidence in rapid growth.
Key Kalshi Betting Odds & Predictions (as of Feb 2026):
• $40 Trillion in Debt: The market shows a 96% chance that the U.S. federal debt hits $40 trillion during the 2025–2028 period.
• $45 Trillion in Debt: There is an 81% chancethat the debt reaches $45 trillion.
• $50 Trillion in Debt: There is a 52% chancethat the debt will reach $50 trillion before the end of the term in 2029.
• $38.5 Trillion Milestone: Data showed the national debt surpassed $38.5 trillion early in 2026.
• Balancing the Budget: There are extremely low odds (often under 1-5%) that the federal budget will be balanced by 2029, with markets reflecting that the yearly deficit remains around $1.8 trillion.
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