No. of Recommendations: 17
Interesting study Jim. I confess, I was highly skeptical. But examining decile studies of SP500 forward total return CAGRs from various years to August 2022 confirms the overall conclusion.
2010
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.31 1.526 -1.68%
0.1 0.2 1.526 1.83 12.24%
0.2 0.3 1.83 1.91 12.19%
0.3 0.4 1.91 1.97 13.76%
0.4 0.5 1.97 2.01 10.13%
0.5 0.6 2.01 2.05 10.84%
0.6 0.7 2.05 2.1 12.43%
0.7 0.8 2.1 2.16 16.84%
0.8 0.9 2.16 2.23 19.38%
0.9 1 2.23 2.67 24.07%
2000
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.37 -12.81%
0.1 0.2 1.37 1.664 1.33%
0.2 0.3 1.664 1.78 11.79%
0.3 0.4 1.78 1.85 5.27%
0.4 0.5 1.85 1.915 8.99%
0.5 0.6 1.915 1.99 9.34%
0.6 0.7 1.99 2.05 9.36%
0.7 0.8 2.05 2.12 11.65%
0.8 0.9 2.12 2.23 15.80%
0.9 1 2.23 3.58 20.77%
1990
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.369 -8.11%
0.1 0.2 1.369 1.64 7.25%
0.2 0.3 1.64 1.8 12.66%
0.3 0.4 1.8 1.89 7.72%
0.4 0.5 1.89 1.98 9.77%
0.5 0.6 1.98 2.06 11.14%
0.6 0.7 2.06 2.18 15.41%
0.7 0.8 2.18 2.41 20.82%
0.8 0.9 2.41 2.931 18.94%
0.9 1 2.931 4.09 14.88%
1980
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.42 -6.62%
0.1 0.2 1.42 1.75 12.99%
0.2 0.3 1.75 1.88 7.86%
0.3 0.4 1.88 2 10.19%
0.4 0.5 2 2.12 11.82%
0.5 0.6 2.12 2.34 19.59%
0.6 0.7 2.34 2.95 17.30%
0.7 0.8 2.95 3.508 10.73%
0.8 0.9 3.508 4.437 20.82%
0.9 1 4.437 6.63 18.04%
1970
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.52 -4.09%
0.1 0.2 1.52 1.82 11.34%
0.2 0.3 1.82 1.96 9.36%
0.3 0.4 1.96 2.11 11.68%
0.4 0.5 2.11 2.47 20.21%
0.5 0.6 2.47 2.98 9.16%
0.6 0.7 2.98 3.461 8.33%
0.7 0.8 3.461 4.05 13.54%
0.8 0.9 4.05 4.89 16.02%
0.9 1 4.89 6.63 20.02%
1960
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.624 -0.98%
0.1 0.2 1.624 1.87 10.33%
0.2 0.3 1.87 2.04 10.70%
0.3 0.4 2.04 2.3 16.23%
0.4 0.5 2.3 2.91 11.62%
0.5 0.6 2.91 3.09 3.85%
0.6 0.7 3.09 3.38 9.17%
0.7 0.8 3.38 3.76 14.06%
0.8 0.9 3.76 4.666 16.80%
0.9 1 4.666 6.63 18.60%
1950
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.69 1.41%
0.1 0.2 1.69 1.93 9.25%
0.2 0.3 1.93 2.14 11.96%
0.3 0.4 2.14 2.82 17.01%
0.4 0.5 2.82 3.05 4.04%
0.5 0.6 3.05 3.32 8.14%
0.6 0.7 3.32 3.72 13.31%
0.7 0.8 3.72 4.32 13.28%
0.8 0.9 4.32 5.3 17.77%
0.9 1 5.3 7.28 23.40%
1940
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.74 3.05%
0.1 0.2 1.74 1.99 8.97%
0.2 0.3 1.99 2.28 14.92%
0.3 0.4 2.28 2.97 10.07%
0.4 0.5 2.97 3.22 5.77%
0.5 0.6 3.22 3.62 11.07%
0.6 0.7 3.62 4.21 11.17%
0.7 0.8 4.21 4.83 17.10%
0.8 0.9 4.83 5.722 17.76%
0.9 1 5.722 8.71 21.81%
1928
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.79 3.89%
0.1 0.2 1.79 2.05 9.35%
0.2 0.3 2.05 2.79 16.60%
0.3 0.4 2.79 3.09 3.64%
0.4 0.5 3.09 3.4 6.96%
0.5 0.6 3.4 3.77 8.70%
0.6 0.7 3.77 4.29 10.41%
0.7 0.8 4.29 4.906 14.53%
0.8 0.9 4.906 5.81 13.72%
0.9 1 5.81 10.55 21.20%
Breaking up the data from 2000 to 2022 into twenty baskets also produces similar results:
2000
From To From To CAGR
0 0.05 1.07 1.24 -15.45%
0.05 0.1 1.24 1.37 -10.03%
0.1 0.15 1.37 1.48 -4.60%
0.15 0.2 1.48 1.66 6.97%
0.2 0.25 1.66 1.73 12.86%
0.25 0.3 1.73 1.78 10.62%
0.3 0.35 1.78 1.82 2.34%
0.35 0.4 1.82 1.85 8.97%
0.4 0.45 1.85 1.89 9.09%
0.45 0.5 1.89 1.92 8.88%
0.5 0.55 1.92 1.95 7.78%
0.55 0.6 1.95 1.99 10.68%
0.6 0.65 1.99 2.02 10.29%
0.65 0.7 2.02 2.05 8.28%
0.7 0.75 2.05 2.08 10.25%
0.75 0.8 2.08 2.12 12.79%
0.8 0.85 2.12 2.17 15.58%
0.85 0.9 2.17 2.23 15.97%
0.9 0.95 2.23 2.33 17.98%
0.95 1 2.33 3.58 23.71%
And I also did segments of history to see if the conclusions would be the same and they are:
1928 1950
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 2.85 3.44 -5.44%
0.1 0.2 3.44 3.70 -2.05%
0.2 0.3 3.70 4.12 1.82%
0.3 0.4 4.12 4.37 7.25%
0.4 0.5 4.37 4.72 6.35%
0.5 0.6 4.72 5.09 15.23%
0.6 0.7 5.09 5.78 -1.00%
0.7 0.8 5.78 6.41 10.32%
0.8 0.9 6.41 6.89 21.20%
0.9 1 6.89 10.55 28.02%
1950 1990
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 2.63 2.99 -3.47%
0.1 0.2 2.99 3.13 3.45%
0.2 0.3 3.13 3.33 8.22%
0.3 0.4 3.33 3.56 12.32%
0.4 0.5 3.56 3.81 14.19%
0.5 0.6 3.81 4.19 11.94%
0.6 0.7 4.19 4.53 18.76%
0.7 0.8 4.53 5.12 15.89%
0.8 0.9 5.12 5.77 21.45%
0.9 1 5.77 7.28 24.25%
1990 2024
From To From To CAGR
0 0.1 1.07 1.37 -8.11%
0.1 0.2 1.37 1.64 7.25%
0.2 0.3 1.64 1.80 12.66%
0.3 0.4 1.80 1.89 7.72%
0.4 0.5 1.89 1.98 9.77%
0.5 0.6 1.98 2.06 11.14%
0.6 0.7 2.06 2.18 15.41%
0.7 0.8 2.18 2.41 20.82%
0.8 0.9 2.41 2.93 18.94%
0.9 1 2.93 4.09 14.81%
Well done. Thanks for sharing.
