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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21938 
Subject: Re: BRK options
Date: 04/16/24 9:59 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 11
When I calculate what Jim calls "the implied interest rate", it is generally lower for a BRK call than the similar SPY call.
That's why BRK over SPY.


This is true, but it's actually a reason that the income from writing calls against Brk isn't very high, making SPY the better choice on that one test. To maximize rate of return from premiums, you'd want something with rich premiums, normally something with a volatile stock price.

But as both of us mentioned, that's not the overriding criterion. Most of all, you want an idea of which way the price is most likely to move. Berkshire's price is not that hard to predict: extrapolate the likely growth trajectory of observable value, slap on a typical multiple for the end date, and the error bars are usefully small.

Conversely, despite many years of analysis in the area, I don't have a clue what the S&P might be at a year from now. The mean reversion is just way too weak, and the observed extremes just too far apart. It's like an ant wandering around somewhere in the middle of Madagascar. You know his range is ultimately bounded, sure, but you have no idea at all whether his next move will be a mile north or a mile south.

Jim

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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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