Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (28) |
Author: rayvt 🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 6132 
Subject: Re: Long time reader, infrequent poster
Date: 11/02/25 12:17 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 3
Oh... Darn darn darn darn darn.
I thought about it a little more.

It is always the case than H >= P and H >= L, therefore P >= L.

Ranking formula: P / ((H + L)/2)
or: P / M, where M is the midpoint between H and L

Simplifying to P/(H+L), the extremes are L == H and L == 0 (zero), since P will never be higher than H.

Since H always moves up when P moves up, the formula looks somewhat like H/(H+L), which looks like the factor L is the dominating factor.

In that case, maybe we could change the ranking formula to "P/L", which reads "how far the current price is above the 52 week low."

Running several different gtr1 backtests,
Summary:
L only and H+L have about the same CAGR. H+L has slightly lower GSD.

CAGR, 2003 to 2025
All 100 : 13.5% GSD 22%
Top 10: L only: 23% H+L: 22%
GSD T10: L only: 34% H+L: 28%


CAGR, 1990 to 2025
All 100 : 14.1% GSD 27%
Top 10: L only: 24% H+L: 26%
GSD T10: L only: 42% H+L: 34%

10-HTD-15 has about the same CAGR and GSD but with 3/4 lower turnover.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to rayvt here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (28) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community