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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
SHREWD
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Number: of 21943 
Subject: Re: Jim, thank you ...
Date: 02/05/23 4:40 AM
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FWIW, he said that we've been in a bull market since October.

Sure.
That's pretty clear, if you take into account either
(a) hindsight, or
(b) my major market bottom detector buy signal Sep 30 : )

So, if he said we're in a bull market since October, that's more impressive if he said it in October than if he said it in February.

The "99 day" bull market signal is very conservative, and signals pretty rarely.
All of its bullish signals are late...but they're conservative.
By the time this thing signals, it's pretty certain that the market is behaving in a bullish way, sufficiently so that (statistically) it's likely to go on for a while.

A bull market is more or less axiomatically a string of fresh [recent] market highs not too far apart.
If you've been seeing that effect lately then it's by definition a bull market, at least for the moment.
If you aren't, it might not be.
The less obvious extension of that:
The longer it has been since a fresh market high, the dodgier the average forward market returns get.
Check out the table in this old post
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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