Barron's published Meryl Witmer's picks on 27 January 2023

barrons.com - Deere dollar tree salesforce stocks bond picks

Donnelley Financial Solutions / DFIN
Blackstone Secured Lending Fund / BXSL
Holcim / HOLN.Switzerland
Euronet Worldwide / EEFT
Dollar Tree / DLTR

DLTR is at $148.27 as I type. Some of Witmer's comments on DLTR:

Rick Dreiling, the executive chairman, really understands the Family Dollar consumer from his days as CEO of Dollar General [DG], which is similar to Family Dollar. [On Jan. 24, Dreiling was named CEO, replacing Mike Witynski. In follow-up comments, Witmer said, 'I wasn't surprised to see Rick assume full control. Although my antennae always go up when there is an executive departure, I was happy to note that the press release said the 'company's operations continue to track consistent with its expectations.' '] Dollar Tree got a tailwind in the second half of the year from lower shipping costs because it imports a lot of merchandise. That's about $500 million of increased savings. The company is adding $3 and $5 items to Dollar Tree stores, which helps sustain same-store sales. It seems the sticker shock of the move to $1.25 from $1 for every item is subsiding, because I see much longer lines and fuller baskets on my store checks.

We expect Dollar Tree to do well in the next several years and see a path to $180 to $200 a share, maybe higher. At this level, there is some downside protection. The company has a history of buying shares under $140. Also, Dollar Tree is having an investor day in the first half of the year to talk about strategy. Investor days generally have been constructive for companies in which the activist firm Mantle Ridge is involved, as is the case here.