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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: lizgdal   😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Portfolio123 Testing 2026
Date: 03/09/26 12:35 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 5
*** 7. High Net Income Low PE screen ***

These are a series of extreme screens, run at depths of 10 and 100. The {NIPE} screen looks for high net income and very low PE, and can uncover survivorship bias. CAGR for these screens over the 10-year backtest:

    Screen      GTR1    P123   diff  CorMER  sdCG  nSD
Low10Volume -19.7% -16.3% 3.5% 0.67 3.2% 1
High10Volume -14.4% -10.9% 3.5% 0.77 5.3% 1
NIPE10 -8.3% -1.6% 6.7% 0.88 1.2% 6
Low10Price -13.5% -5.8% 7.7% 0.90 4.7% 2
High100Volume 4.5% 8.5% 4.0% 0.93 1.9% 2
Low100Volume 0.0% 5.2% 5.3% 0.95 1.1% 5
NIPE100 7.2% 8.7% 1.5% 0.98 1.0% 2
Low100Price -2.6% 2.2% 4.8% 0.99 1.2% 4


sdCG is the standard deviation of the 19 GTR1 daily start dates.
nSD is the number of sdCG that separate GTR1 and P123.

There is good general agreement, with similar CAGR and high CorMER. But all 8 screens show higher P123 CAGR.

The 10-deep volume screens have lower CorMER, highlighting a possible difference between GTR1 and P123. The high sdCG indicates the difference may be due to the backtest start date for these screens.

=== screen definitions ===

P123 {NIPE10}
Universe(ALLFUND)
!IsMLP & !IsOTC & !IsUnlisted & !IsADR
SecurityType = Common
NetIncBXorTTM >= 100
PEExclXorTTM > 0
FOrder("PEExclXorTTM", #Previous, #ASC) <= 10 // lowest PE

P123 {High100Volume} is {Base} with
FOrder("AvgDailyTot(10) / AvgDailyTot(63)", #Previous) <= 100

P123 {LowPrice10} is {Base} with
FOrder("Price", #Previous, #ASC) <= 10

=== links ===
gtr1.net: GTR1 Backtester - gNIPE10
gtr1.net: GTR1 Backtester - gHigh100Volume
gtr1.net: GTR1 Backtester - gLowPrice10
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