I think we are close to the bottom when we get these posts.

Under normal circumstances I would agree, but these are anything but normal times. The war (I’m sorry, excursion) is being run by the seat of his pants, with all the attention of an ADHD toddler, and it’s not beyond belief that he could just say “Mission Accomplished” and quit tomorrow. Or, if Bibi whines, add in another 20,000 troops and invade Kharg Island. Or possibly Saudi Disneyland.

The market, which has far too much money on its hands and seems uninterested in fundamentals, will go up when it wants and down when it wants, occasionally in line with important pronouncements and often not.

Oh smart one Goofy, what are you doing?

Nothing. I have a fat slug of Berkshire, a somewhat smaller pile of Costco, and a whole bunch of oil, mostly Exxon but some other, smaller players too. A stable foundation on which to lay my plahyground. The other stuff (CVS, Weyerhauser, DG, etc. is too small to matter, as are my shorts: Tesla, Palantir, and NVDA, two of which are green and the other just barely bubbling under.

The ones I’m having fun with are my drone ETF, DRNZ, and defense ETF SHLD, both of which I should have hit harder. The ones causing me angst are my pot ETFs, WEED and MSOS. I was sure those were “to the moon, Alice” but have not turned out to be. Ah well. Who would have thought people didn’t want to get high during a war. Excursion. Whatever.

Executive summary: It’s like betting on the Mets. You have no idea what you’re going to get, what they’re going to do, how it’s going to come out - but after it’s all over you’ll probably be OK.