No. of Recommendations: 5
The errors have not been in intelligence but in the consequent decisions.
I largely agree with everything except that the errors have also been in the consequent labeling and deliberate misinterpretation in describing what the intelligence actually told these "decision makers."
We're kind of splitting hairs here. In intelligence work there's raw intelligence and then there's analysis or assessment. My point was that the raw intelligence has not been faked. The analysis was certainly poor because it was slanted to fit the world view of the authoritarian leaders, rather than the leaders adjusting their world view to what the intelligence tells them.
In the case of the Iran war, the assessment was that the regime would collapse like a house of cards, which obviously was false.
Going back to October 7th 2023, the Israeli intelligence assessment was adjusted to Netanyahu's view that Hamas was not a serious threat. It resulted in a lack of preparedness and the ignoring of flashing red lights and blaring sirens (metaphorically), and a huge military disaster.