On Bear markets, Ken Fisher says " They are characterized by a slow, rolling start, often delivering roughly one-third of the total decline in the first two-thirds of the time. "

and "Corrections vs. Bears: He differentiates between quick, sentiment-driven "corrections" (usually -10% to -20%) and full "bear markets," advising investors not to treat every decline as a major crisis."

That's why you have plenty of time to get out.
The average bear market lasts about 14 months. For a 30% decline you've got 4 1/2 months to get out for only the 10% loss, to sidestep the other 20% loss.

When I ran a timing backtest using a 43 week (10 month) SMA on the S&P500 the best result was not selling until 4 consecutive weeks of the close below the SMA. Being more hasty had worse results.

The problem [some] people have is they sell out when they see a hiccup and are out when the market recovers from the pothole shortly thereafter.



let´s assume for a moment you´d have so much conviction that "it´s over"

The S&P 500 is currently down only -2.1% from its all-time high.
as of 2/11/2026 it is +7.1% above the 43 week SMA.

"The Magnificent Seven account for 34.3% of the S&P 500 as of Feb. 2, 2026." That's a large weighting and the S&P is *still* doing ok.

As The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy says, "DON'T PANIC" in large friendly letters.