*                         6/17     6/24     7/1      7/8/24
S&P 500 Index             5431.60  5464.62  5460.48  5567.19
Trailing 12 month PE      27.81    28.29    28.23    28.44
Trail Earnings yield      3.60%    3.53%    3.54%    3.52%
Forward 12 month PE       23.22    24.24    24.14    23.63
Fwd Earnings Yield        4.31%    4.12%    4.14%    4.23%
90 day tbill yield        5.51     5.49     5.48     5.46
10 year tbond yield       4.20%    4.25%    4.36%    4.28%
Arezi Ratio               1.53     1.55     1.55     1.55
Fed Ratio                 0.98     1.03     1.05     1.01

The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The 'Fed Ratio' is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than 'fair value'
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 42%
stocks, 58% cash this week.

Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is above its 200DMA. - Bullish
We are in the May-Oct part of the year. - Bearish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P is above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is inverted. - Bearish

A composite allocation may start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. The current target allocation is 12%.

An alternative allocation, using S=120-30*Arezi Ratio and the first
two of the other timing indicators, produces a target of 63%.

Elan

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