Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
 Best Of PoliticsBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of PoliticsBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd

The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (1) |
Author: PucksFool ✧✺🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 84364 
Subject: To sum up where we are & where we're head
Date: 04/10/26 11:29 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 5
prospect.org - Iran war cease fire strait of hormuz oil shipping toll

The War Is Bad. The Cease-Fire Doesn’t Exist. The Future Is Awful.

Every other country or rogue actor in this position will wonder why they don’t just go ahead and do the same thing.

In such a fraught moment, casting our eyes forward to the aftermath may seem premature. But no matter whether hostilities resume or not, the future for the Middle East and the global economy is precisely the same as I said last week: Iran has operational control of the Strait of Hormuz. And this Wall Street Journal quote from a bank analyst sums it up: “This has been the economic catastrophe that everybody could have predicted, that everybody was predicting, but Trump did it anyway.”

International maritime law prohibits payments for passage on a natural waterway, but operational control is bigger than a tollbooth. A toll, however “illegal,” is just a cost of doing business that gets folded into the overall product. That toll is something like $1 per barrel of oil, paid in Chinese yuan or crypto. (Oman, which is on the other side of the strait, would split the fees with Iran, making them perhaps the biggest winner in this whole thing.)

Another dollar on each barrel is not going to crash the global economy, though the total cost will be a huge windfall for Iran. But the thing about a tollbooth is the gate can go up or down, as we’ve already seen hours after the non-cease-fire cease-fire. If Iran is attacked or even mildly offended, they can shut the gate. If Iran decides a country isn’t operating in their interests and a ship either bears that country’s flag or has goods destined for that location, they can shut the gate. If Iran’s oil exports aren’t doing well enough and they don’t want to compete with an OPEC rival, maybe they shut the gate.
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to PucksFool here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 84,309 posts about US Policy. The article-length ones it recommended most:
It's going to get worse · 33 recs · 2025
G’day Donny · 30 recs · 2026
Old Related Story · 28 recs · 2026
HCR is a national treasure · 27 recs · 2025
Fascism in America · 27 recs · 2025
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (1) |


Announcements
US Policy FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Ticker or Board Name Author

Best Of Politics | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community