No. of Recommendations: 4
Yet another investor conf in about 25 min or so.
https://www.esperion.com/investor-relations/eventsNot much new news lately.
Essentially payer coverage continues to improve, but is not yet universally consistent.
In some cases, like with Express Scripts, it appears they have updated their 2025 formulary which takes effect in Jan 2025. This has Nexletol and Nexlizet listed as preferred drugs. So basically coverage started improving in June and a bit more in Sept and still more likely in January.
Then the challenge is awareness aka advertising, to both the end user patients and to the physicians that prescribe the Rx. Even if physicians are aware of these drugs, they may have outdated perceptions that they are uncovered and expensive. So education vs advertising and marketing is needed in an ongoing manner.
Ultimately, sales will decide this stock's fate, I believe.
A $33-35m Q3 US sales number would be 65-75% y/y growth. That becomes hard to ignore.
A $40m Q4 US sales number would be 100% y/y growth. That is hyper-growth any way you slice it.
They have to hit those numbers first, and next ER not likely until 1st or 2nd week in Nov.
Other big question is whether they will have a buyout offer they accept, or partnership agreement they accept, along the way. That could be for the US business and/or for new markets of Australia, Canada, and Israel.
I do not expect anything new at this conference call today, but will be happy to be pleasantly surprised to the contrary. We will see.
Dreamer
