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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", sykesix asked the members: "What do you do if you arrive early at movie besides go to the snack bar?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch ✹✺🐝🐝🐝 SILVER
SHREWD
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Number: of 22989 
Subject: Re: brk and fair value,
Date: 02/12/24 11:39 AM
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No. of Recommendations: 14
How many of us here think BRK is somewhat undervalued at current levels? I was thinking it’s not cheap at these levels, and I recently sold a bit for living expenses, but I’m often wrong!

I think it comes down to a firm distinction between price and value.

It seems the current valuation level is a fair bit above the average in the last 15 years. Consequently, if valuation multiples hover around the same range in the next few years, the short term outlook for the price is not that great. Emphasis on "if" and "short term", but I don't see any reason to have a central expectation of a positive real price return in the next year.

But I think the actual fair value is a fair bit above the average observed market value. It's entirely possible for the stock to be trading at a price that is both above average valuation but below actual fair value.

To me, fair value for any financial asset is what will get me Siegel's constant: around inflation plus 6.5%/year without relying on an exit point at an above-average valuation level.
Berkshire has mostly returned a fair bit more than that without getting more expensive, so it has mostly been underpriced. By extension, the *average* price is a lot less than the *fair* price.

Jim
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This community has written 22,499 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 58 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 55 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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