No. of Recommendations: 1
"Your analysis suggests that intrinsic value was only 35% more than book value in 1999"
Yes, and with the trendline corrected only 32% more.
Here are a couple of other IV/BV estimates as of Dec '99:
Kish conservative (DCF model), 1.45
Kish more conservative (two-column model), 1.31
Weighing machine (P vs BV model), 1.32
Maybe someone here can add another model and IV/BV estimate for Dec '99, and for Dec '24.
"as an aside, the buybacks at high P/B last year are known to be from a long time shareholder, so presumably have nothing to say about management's thoughts about fair value."
OK, however in Sept '23 Berkshire repurchased shares at prices corresponding to 1.47x the beginning BV for the quarter and 1.51x the ending BV for the quarter. The weighing machine model gave an estimated IV/BV of 1.51 as of the end of Q3 2023. The model isn't perfect, but I think it provides reasonable estimates of IV, and ones that are consistent enough to use for estimating the upward trend in IV/BV over the last 60 years and the last 25 years. JMHO.
