I found it useful to look at recent history to see how things panned out when the stock has been at similar levels.
I think the last time the stock at these sort of multiples to contemporaneous book value was in January 2018.
For a position established at that point, the 5 year CAGR was 7.5%. Not great but hardly terminal and the first and final years of that holding period co-incided with weak markets.
For holding periods of 6 years and above starting Jan 2018, the returns settled into the 10-12% range that the underlying business generates.

I personally have very little interest in predicting or playing yearly moves in stock price so a 5 year forward expected return is the way I tend to think of prospects.

If the next 5 years are similar and a 7.5%pa return for a 5 year hold is acceptable then there is no real reason to do anything. Obviously the decision is harder today when risk free US treasuries are offerring much higher returns than were in Jan 2018. The other factor is that the next five years will almost certainly see Buffett leaving the helm so there could be some volatility related to that.

Personally I am not doing anything with my Berkshire position. If the market throws up other opportunities, I'd be less hesitant to move some capital from Berkshire but it's a high bar.

Berkshire Hathaway FAQ

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