" It does not make me happy to be the bearer of bad news. I provided the detailed argument in this article in the effort to give real substance to the Goldman view in hopes that readers can draw upon serious data in thinking about the future of the market. I am still working out the most rational thing to do with most of the stocks in my portfolio which are great companies but now consist of 60-80% embedded capital gains. Should I sell and pay the capital gains taxes? It's a very tough decision. It's even harder to know how to advise younger investors. One approach is dollar-cost-averaging into the index. Another is to own some bonds. My strategy at age 80 will likely differ from yours. Just don't act without thinking it through. Read this article from start to finish two or three times and let the facts sink in. Ask questions in your comments and I promise to answer to the best of my ability. And don't forget the cautionary advice of Niels Bohr and Yogi Berra."

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