his is something I have long wondered about. Is it realistic to think we could stop a determined Chinese conventional war to take Taiwan.

You’ve voiced THE real question.
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In Mid 2000s, when both Republicans and Club 401K were selling out to China, I said that one day China will take Taiwan and the most America will do is pass a resolution condemning it, and maybe some symbolic sanctions.

Since then America has helped China build industry, steal technology both commercial and defense related. America's Ruling Class has been to some degree or the other - on China's payroll. Whether it's those Big Business Republicans or Club 401K "my portfolio!" people -- all have enjoyed their sellout to China.

So here we are now.

Divided. Polarized. Tribal. Broke. Middle Class in peril. Debt exploding. Yes we have tons of advantages but -- these are major drags.

First off, depending on who is President, 50% of the country will oppose action against China. And he who is in power will not have the political capital to endorse the casualties. (Thank God)

Also the "multinational" corporations that some of us in the 90s and 00s warned have loyalty to NO flag. They carry huge influence on the Ruling Class in both parties.

Finally, this wouldn't be SmartBombs on CNN. This would be something we've not seen - depending on age --- EVER.

If memory serves me right, wasn't something leaked recently that the US believes China would really bite a piece of our Navy's ass off during such a confrontation? And all of this doesn't include the economic havoc they could play. Sure, we could too.....but our people won't be able to take it for long.

Isn't it funny how even in "polarized" times the CHIPS act got done and we're going to build more semiconductors in America, and Taiwan Semi is setting up shop here?

My point: We're not gonna do jack shit when -- yes ---when China takes Taiwan. They know it. We know it. They gave us fair warning and we're getting semis built here so our supply chain and our sainted earnings per share don't get molested too badly.

This 'war' is over. China won this part of it.

Tis why I mused out loud - maybe they said - ok, you do Caracas and we'll stay out, and in return Vladdy bites Ukraine's ass off and China takes Taiwan and Uncle Sam has a beer and a hot dog.

Mind you, what're said here - I would bet 70% of my betting stake on. the other 30% - World War 3. Bad culture, and mass unemployment one day...will require a big war so the Ruling Class and set the masses on course for a Hunger Games life - where they are given a stipend, pot to smoke, an AI doll to fuck, and all the Social media they want. A big war is a fine catalyst to reset societal norms.

Regardless---don't enlist.