EUR-USD is expected to rise steadily...
The GBP may rise against the USD...

There seems to be near universal consensus that the trade weighted US dollar will fall in 2026. There are lots of good reasons that it make a lot of sense, and I believe the reasoning.

The only thing is, I am always suspicious of a consensus that universal. Surely some of those people have money to wager on the effect, and have already placed those wagers, so some of the move is already baked in? So I will boldly predict that the US dollar *won't* drop meaningfully in 2026 for nothing other than contrarian reasoning.

I think the word to watch out for in 2026 (perhaps into 2027) is inflation. I think there is a big risk of a lot of it in the next several years, a big resurgence, perhaps lasting longer than the recent spike. It seems to me that a lot of politicians have painted themselves into a corner, and the only door in that corner is "inflate away the problem". And of course there are few things that make people hate their leaders more than inflation, so we'll see a lot of that hatred, which should wipe out most of the remaining sane/centrist politicians and their parties.

Jim