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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 84364 
Subject: Re: Booze
Date: 07/02/25 4:42 PM
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Just an update on the alcohol thesis, which is that alcohol consumption may fall but it isn't going to disappear.

The four stocks mentioned (Diageo listed in London, Campario in Milan, and Pernod and Remy listed in Paris) are up an average of 6.2% in their own currencies, after falling below where I first mentioned them. Quite a bit more measured in US dollars that have shrunk lately.

Campari does not have the immediate attraction of the others: no trailing earnings, and yield 1.1%. That doesn't mean it's a bad company, just sayin'.
The others have trailing earnings yields averaging 5.38% equating to an average P/E of 18.6, average dividend yield 4.58%.
Considering that this is a sector that has been very weak and almost given up for dead, those aren't actually terrible numbers.

Any business wanting to stick around for the long haul needs younger folk to become their customers. So, an omen that they might not go bust:
Global volumes may have fallen 2% last year, but a recent study shows that the fraction of adults who have consumed alcohol in the past six months is up among Gen X, Gen Y, and Gen Z compared to two years ago, and down a hair only among boomers. (many of whom are getting age-related leanings towards temperance!)

An article in the FT
Financial Times: Content 1ae55e45 64a6 463a b04b 198ee324115e

Gen Z acquires taste for drinking as cost of living pressures ease
Survey shows drop in abstinence among young adults as drinks industry battles perception of structural decline

"An IWSR survey of more than 26,000 people across the 15 largest alcoholic drinks markets found 73 per cent of Gen Z respondents — people of legal drinking age to 27 — had consumed alcohol in the previous six months, compared with 66 per cent two years ago.
That was the biggest increase of any generation, according to IWSR, a market researcher for the global beverage industry.
Meanwhile, 72 per cent of baby boomers — people aged 60 and over — said they had drunk alcohol over the same time period, compared with 73 per cent two years ago, said IWSR, which also found overall alcohol consumption was still moderating across generations.
...
The share of Gen X (those aged between 44 and 59) that said they had drunk alcohol in the last half year rose from 77 per cent in 2023 to 79 per cent this year. The figures for millennials (28 to 43) rose from 79 per cent to 83 per cent. Six per cent of boomers said they were actively drinking more, compared with 29 per cent of Gen Z respondents."


Jim
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