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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
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Author: zeelotes 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: Presidential Cycle - an observation
Date: 03/08/24 4:23 PM
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Said stated: A test for which - see Zee's post - of course one would need "GTR1's S&P 500 Dividend Adjusted", to include dividends; not possible for me as I think to understand to run GTR1 one needs a Sip Pro subscription (which I don't have), correct?

I believe anyone can obtain this data from GTR1.

Regarding the method, I've posted extensively on what I call the "Best Nine Months" research back in 2006 IIRC. In it I found the optimal start date to be October 6th, and then a hold for nine months. This is NOT based on Presidential Cycles per se, but rather, out of all periods of time in a four-year period what are the absolute best nine months, twelve months, etc.

So adjusting to this you end up with the following:

10/1/1926 to       3/7/2024  ^S5T                                                                
Results ROI CAGR GSD Sharpe DDD3 BBW Win % Drawdown CAGR Invested CAGR Cash
PY Worse Periods 1674.30% 3.00% 17.84 0.03 10.87% 0.3 69% -85.18% 2.81% 3.79%
PY Best Periods 59475.80% 6.78% 6.98 0.46 2.98% 2.44 88% -40.23% 19.77% 3.98%


As you can see, there is a vast difference between the two - BTW - I had to correct an error in what I previously posted. This is now correct to the best of my ability.

As to the actual periods compared:

Date       Signal         % G/L      Date       Signal         % G/L
6/30/1927 Worse 39 Mths 22.00% 10/6/1926 Best 9 Months 7.95%
6/30/1931 Worse 39 Mths -38.18% 10/6/1930 Best 9 Months -25.94%
7/1/1935 Worse 39 Mths 24.64% 10/6/1934 Best 9 Months 27.97%
6/30/1939 Worse 39 Mths -14.62% 10/6/1938 Best 9 Months -11.80%
6/30/1943 Worse 39 Mths 17.78% 10/6/1942 Best 9 Months 28.56%
6/30/1947 Worse 39 Mths 30.71% 10/7/1946 Best 9 Months 4.99%
7/2/1951 Worse 39 Mths 49.37% 10/6/1950 Best 9 Months 5.28%
6/30/1955 Worse 39 Mths 18.81% 10/6/1954 Best 9 Months 23.86%
6/30/1959 Worse 39 Mths -8.94% 10/6/1958 Best 9 Months 20.01%
7/1/1963 Worse 39 Mths 6.88% 10/8/1962 Best 9 Months 19.67%
6/30/1967 Worse 39 Mths -9.04% 10/6/1966 Best 9 Months 14.76%
6/30/1971 Worse 39 Mths -31.82% 10/6/1970 Best 9 Months 13.89%
6/30/1975 Worse 39 Mths 0.12% 10/7/1974 Best 9 Months 44.68%
7/2/1979 Worse 39 Mths 13.21% 10/6/1978 Best 9 Months -5.22%
6/30/1983 Worse 39 Mths 46.04% 10/6/1982 Best 9 Months 29.41%
6/30/1987 Worse 39 Mths 4.35% 10/6/1986 Best 9 Months 35.53%
7/1/1991 Worse 39 Mths 27.62% 10/8/1990 Best 9 Months 17.22%
6/30/1995 Worse 39 Mths 69.95% 10/6/1994 Best 9 Months 20.67%
6/30/1999 Worse 39 Mths -32.34% 10/6/1998 Best 9 Months 41.69%
6/30/2003 Worse 39 Mths 31.88% 10/7/2002 Best 9 Months 21.05%
7/2/2007 Worse 39 Mths -18.97% 10/6/2006 Best 9 Months 14.22%
6/30/2011 Worse 39 Mths 36.87% 10/6/2010 Best 9 Months 13.19%
6/30/2015 Worse 39 Mths 50.33% 10/6/2014 Best 9 Months 3.69%
7/1/2019 Worse 39 Mths 12.01% 10/8/2018 Best 9 Months 0.87%
6/30/2023 Worse 39 Mths 12.74% 10/6/2022 Best 9 Months 14.97%
Average 12.86% 15.25%
Median 13.21% 14.97%
Percent Positive 72.00%
88.00%


Keep in mind that the table on the left is invested 39 months out of the four year period, while the one on the right is invested just 9 months and holds cash the remainder of the time. So you cannot just compare the one to the other since the periods are so vastly different!
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