Cross-posted from METAR with live links.

discussion.fool.com - Wsj singing the blues today

The Wall Street Journal is usually bullish. Today… not so much.

wsj.com - Stock market today dow nasdaq

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Stock Market Today: Trade Threats Send Dow Down 500 Points
U.S. dollar weakens further; airline stocks in focus after outlook cuts

Last Updated: March 11, 2025

…
Fears about a recession sparked a selloff Monday, with sliding tech shares spurring the Nasdaq Composite’s biggest loss since 2022. President Trump declined to rule out a recession on Sunday and said his economic shake-up would result in a “period of transition.”

“It was a really emotionally charged decline,” said Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner of Fairlead Strategies. But she added that “this is more than just a brief pullback that we’re going through.”…

wsj.com - Trump team recession hard landing
Wall Street Fears Trump Will Wreck the Soft Landing
The economy’s pilot has a new message: Fasten your seat belts

By Nick Timiraos, March 10, 2025

… President Trump and his senior advisers in recent days have signaled indifference to rising risks that trade uncertainty chills private-sector investment. They have argued a “detox” might be needed in spending and hiring, that falling stock values aren’t a big worry, and that inflation could rise in the short run…

wsj.com - Consumer credit debt economy impact
Consumers Keep Bailing Out the Economy. Now They Might Be Maxed Out.
Recession fears rekindle concerns that Americans are overstretched on debt

By Telis Demos, March 11, 2025

…
Yet investors suddenly have fresh concerns. For one, Americans’ inflation-adjusted debt burdens are starting to grow further beyond prepandemic levels on a per-household basis. As of the fourth quarter of 2024, the average household’s credit-card debt surpassed $10,000, adjusted for inflation, for the first time since 2009…

In a February survey of consumers by the Federal Reserve, respondents on average thought that they had 14.6% chance of not being able to make one of their minimum required debt payments over the next three months, which is the highest level since April 2020…[end quote]

wsj.com - Recession donald trump fox news economy tariffs markets
Will There Be a Trump Recession?
Economic signs are mixed, but his willy-nilly tariffs have markets worried.

By The Editorial Board, March 10, 2025

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These WSJ articles cite many data points that together add up to a danger of a slowing economy, possibly recession. Goodbye, soft landing!

The stock market has been in a bubble for a long time. Is this the beginning of a 1999-2000 type burst? VIX is spiking and Bullish Percent is plunging. The 3-month and 2-year Treasury yields are falling faster than longer durations which implies near-term fear of recession. The Fear & Greed Index is in Extreme Fear.

Risk is very high of a stock market crash. However, the financial stress index is still low so there’s no current danger of a financial crisis.

Wendy

St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index