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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Stocks A to Z / Stocks B / Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A)
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Author: mungofitch 🐝🐝🐝 GOLD
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Number: of 21943 
Subject: Re: Barrons, feature on Japan, well done
Date: 01/06/24 4:31 PM
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No. of Recommendations: 19
It's hard to imagine how many people over the years have done poorly starting with the story "Japan is cheap and you can make a lot of money buying now before it gets fully valued again".
The problem is, it's generally cheaper than other stock markets for a reason, and most declarations that those reasons are no longer valid have not panned out. Maybe it really is different this time, maybe it isn't.
The spectacular level level of corruption and low level of fiduciary responsibility among top managers is depressing. You might be buying a claim on the future earnings cheaply, but you probably won't receive them.

From time to time in the past I have made bullish noises about investing in Japan when it has been REALLY cheap, on the theory that even if it reverts to its own normal valuation level you'd do fine.
e.g., this post in Feb 2010 which for humorous reasons called for a rise of 76.1% in 4.7 years.
http://www.datahelper.com/mi/search.phtml?nofool=y...
In the end it took almost exactly five years to hit that target, a return of 12.4%/year plus dividends measured in yen. But things aren't as cheap now as they were then, and I personally don't think the business prospects have improved that much.

I think Mr Buffett's play is fine. He has bought a slate as a semi-macro bet on their future aggregate profitability, he bought in at a very attractive level, and the financing and currency hedge cost less than the ongoing yield. But I don't feel tempted to play along.

Jim
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This community has written 21,448 posts about Berkshire Hathaway. The article-length ones it recommended most:
BRK: Why Not XOM? · 62 recs · 2024
Second quarter comments · 60 recs · 2023
Berkshire's Profit Contributors · 57 recs · 2023
Summary of 2Q 2026 · 54 recs · 2026
3Q Summary · 53 recs · 2024
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