Hi, Shrewd!        Login  
Shrewd'm.com 
A merry & shrewd investing community
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd
Search
Shrewd'm.com Merry shrewd investors
Search
Best Of MIBest OfAll BoardsThe Shrewd’m WeeklyLearn to InvestHow to Become Shrewd


The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
Answer this questionContinue to Shrewd'mThis note won't appear again
Investment Strategies / Mechanical Investing
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (17) |
Author: Manlobbi 🐝🐝  😊 😞
Number: of 6131 
Subject: Re: look back period
Date: 09/02/25 8:24 AM
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
No. of Recommendations: 13
This implies that for the canonical monthly hold the best look back would be four weeks. That certainly hasn't been my experience over the years.

The effective look-back period for momentum is proportion to the forward return in which it works, rather than equal to, though I gave examples with them being equal, I apologize.

You would intuitively expect the look-back period (for momentum) to be at least twice as long than the holding period (and more meaningful at 3-5 times longer or so) such that we are actually capturing 'part' of the momentum. (It sort of doesn't make sense if the 'part' is longer the whole).

In any case, the holding period rises in proportion to the relative strength loopback period.

Holding for 1 minute - use momentum the last 4 minutes
Holding for 1 week - use momentum the last month
Holding for 1 month - use momentum the last 4 months
Holding for 6 months - use momentum the last 24 months
Holding for 12 months - use momentum the last 4 years

- Manlobbi
Post New | Post Reply | Report Post | Recommend It!
Print the post
Members reply directly to Manlobbi here — and replies get answered. Reading is free; so is joining the conversation. Join Shrewd'm »
This community has written 6,115 posts about Mechanical Investing. The article-length ones it recommended most:
Dividend investing · 52 recs · 2025
Non-Mag7 screen · 34 recs · 2025
OT - Div yields and returns · 32 recs · 2024
Using AI to generate backtesting programs · 30 recs · 2025
Rankings for 19Dec2022 · 29 recs · 2022
Unthreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (17) |


Announcements
Mechanical Investing FAQ
Contact Shrewd'm
Contact the developer of these message boards.

Best Of MI | Best Of | Favourites & Replies | All Boards | Followed Shrewds | Open Questions | Moving a community