Good morning albaby, hope all is well. Halperin in his latest podcast makes Shapiro the favorite to get the Dem nomination in 28. I say Shapiro has zero chance, none, to be the Dem nominee, what do you think?

I think Shapiro would be a real longshot to win the nomination in '28, and I would not be the least surprised if he foregoes a run at it, or just makes a token run so he can start introducing himself to the national donor and campaign system for a more serious run in '32 or '36.

Anything can happen, of course - but it's just not a great spot for him to take a shot. The party is more or less split into two broad camps: the Sanders progressive left faction and the more traditional centrist establishment faction. Shapiro obviously can't advance in the former "lane," which will be someone like AOC or Ro Khanna. Maybe even El-Sayed if he wins, or even Pritzger (who is a longshot but is trying for that slice of the party).

That leaves the "centrist" lane. And it is going to be dominated initially by Harris and Newsom (who have massive fundraising apparatus and national footprints already). There's not going to be a ton of oxygen or money there even from the beginning. The rest of that lane is going to be clogged by people in better spots than Shapiro. Buttigieg certainly seems like he's going to run again, and Mark Kelly and Rahm Emanuel will as well - all of whom have a much bigger national profile already and (perhaps more importantly) are all already laying the groundwork for a run right now. You'll also have some red state centrists in the mix, I think - if Ossoff wins re-election (which he looks like he might), look for him to seriously consider a run, as well as Andy Beshear.

And, of course, the reason you mentioned him on this thread is that his positions on Israel are pretty out of step with where a big chunk of the Democratic base is right now. I suspect that's what you were suggesting, but I really don't think that's quite as much an obstacle for him as the broader picture above. Even without that, Shapiro would have to be considered a longshot for the centrist establishment "lane," given where Harris and Newsom and Buttigieg and Ossoff (if he runs) would be. Plus, Shapiro's path to the nomination is in a different part of the party - the folks who really care about that issue probably weren't going to vote for a center-left establishment figure anyway. But it does increase the degree of difficulty for him.