PA-1.....

Harvie (D) has been a shitty campaign. Fitzpatrick (R) - well connected in town has run an amazing campaign BUT -- does the "Blue Wave"----splash over the good campaign? Usually it does.


Michigan Senate.....

Sayid has been an amazing candidate and Rodgers has been just terrible so it's been obvious. Sayid will win.

My curiosity and maybe Steve is out there and I am sure you'll know what I man - is there a "REVERSE Bradley effect?". Meaning - usually theory is if there's a minority candidate, his actual returns will be a few points lower compared to polls, because some people like to tell a human pollster "Yeah I'll vote for him" but then in secret---do the opposite. I truly believe---Donald Trump had some reverse -Bradley effect in his favor in 2016 and 2024.

So in Sayid's case -- I'm wondering - is my theory correct? I've said this a few times with AOC and Mamdani: "Yes, there's a segment that just doesn't any Sayid or AOC or Mamdani BUT -- when chips are down, and people are scared about health insurance or the basics....they'll take those basics from ANYONE ---literally anyone". So -- this one has be curious.

And finally....

Does a machine and roots withstand a wave? I'm not sure in case of COLLINS. She knows the lay of the land well. The land--knows her well. The challenger isn't the best candidate BUT again - as a lobsterman in Maine said 'gas is up, lobster is down' again---does issues of the wallet trump 'the machine' and roots?

Again, Club 401K doesn't realize this. the "Noun, Verb, Free Market" folk on my side don't get this....but -- the new American Dream is indeed "I made my bills this month, I didn't get shot at. And my daughter and her boyfriend can move out of my home and found good day-care for their son"

And people weren't happy about this in 2016, 2020, 2024, 2026 and now 2028. In 2040---you can but Christ and Lincoln on the ticket and DISSATISFACTION will be lower compared to now.

Bank on it.