Either way, whichever smallest candidate is eliminated, I will be surprised to see the Democrat come out on top. Anything can happen, I suppose, but I’ll have to see the logic afterwards.

Gemini opines thusly:

▶ The Case for Dan Sullivan (R)

• Conservative Preferences: Gerald Heikes’ voters (2.3%) are overwhelmingly conservative. When Heikes is eliminated, the vast majority of his 2nd-choice votes are expected to flow to Senator Dan Sullivan.

• Consolidation: If Senator Sullivan captures most of the eliminated Republicans' second-choice votes, it provides a solid boost toward reaching the 50% threshold.

▶ The Case for Mary Peltola (D)

• First-Choice Lead & Exhausted Ballots: Peltola starts ahead in initial preference votes. If a significant portion of third-party voters leave their 2nd choices blank (exhausting their ballots) rather than ranking Senator Sullivan, Peltola's baseline lead lowers the total number of votes needed to win.

• Protest Vote Transfers: Voters who selected Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. (1.7%) split across party lines. Early data shows a portion of these ballots rank Peltola as their second choice, keeping her competitive in transfer rounds.

• Late-Arriving Mail & Regional Ballots: Historically, late-counted absentee ballots and rural/Native precinct tallies in Alaska tend to favor Democratic candidates, which could widen Peltola’s base before final transfers begin.