No. of Recommendations: 44
I thought this image might be interesting.
stonewellfunds.com - BRKandS P ValueAndPriceThis shows a yardstick of the value of the S&P index (smoothed real earnings), and its price, both adjusted for inflation.
The cool colours.
It also shows a yardstick for the value of Berkshire (peak book to date), and its price, both adjusted for inflation.
The warm colours.
All of them are presented as log scale and rescaled to the same number in Sept 2005. The date was chosen mainly because at that time the valuation of both of those picks was pretty close to their respective averages since then.
Note that this is an analysis of the price and value of the S&P *index*, without dividends. It isn't a chart of the total return series of a dividend-paying fund like SPY, because the trend earnings line is a metric of the value of the index itself, not something that rises with total return. But the modest dividends don't really change the key insight that the price level of the S&P has really pulled away from its value metric. The S&P has become a whole lot more expensive and Berkshire hasn't, so that's the only reason that the total returns have been similar in the last 10-20 years.
If both alternatives were to continue their rates of value growth (which won't happen), the S&P total return could continue to keep up with Berkshire only by getting even more expensive forever (which DEFINITELY won't happen)
Jim