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The week's question
In December 2024, in the thread "Re: BRK: Why Not XOM?", BreckHutHigh asked the members: "What about the long road trips with kids?" This week it is put to everyone again. The button below opens the small thread re-asking it - read what others have said so far, then give your own answer as an ordinary reply.
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Halls of Shrewd'm / US Policy
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Author: wzambon 🐝 BRONZE
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Number: of 84364 
Subject: Escalation mistaken for control
Date: 07/30/26 12:23 PM
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“World wars begin when leaders mistake escalation for control.”

Some mornings the news is bad. Other mornings it feels as though the world is standing in a room full of gasoline while political leaders compete to strike the loudest match.

Today feels like the second kind.

The United States has launched a major wave of attacks on Iran, striking Revolutionary Guard command centers, missile sites, drone facilities, and coastal defenses. The strikes followed an Iranian missile attack aimed at American military bases in the Middle East, including Jordan. The conflict has spread through Iraq, Kuwait, and the Strait of Hormuz.

This is no longer a contained confrontation, assuming it ever was. It is a widening war with more countries, more weapons, more suffering, and more chances for one terrible mistake.

As if that were not enough, a Russian cruise missile crossed into Poland during an attack on Ukraine and crashed near the Ukrainian border. Poland is not Ukraine. Poland is a member of NATO. Polish officials said there was no indication that Poland was deliberately targeted, but intention is only part of the danger. Missiles do not need malicious intent to kill people or trigger military responses.

This is how world wars become possible.

They do not always begin with a formal declaration delivered by a solemn president behind a polished desk. Sometimes they begin through a chain of actions that every government describes as necessary, defensive, proportionate, or unavoidable. One country retaliates. Another restores deterrence. Another protects its allies. Another refuses to appear weak. Each attack is presented as the action that will end the escalation, right before the next attack begins.

The people ordering these strikes speak in the bloodless language of targets, assets, capabilities, and strategic objectives. Civilians experience the translation. It means shattered homes, terrified children, burned hospitals, interrupted food supplies, lost electricity, and bodies pulled from rubble.

We should be suspicious whenever war is sold as a clean instrument that can be carefully calibrated by people who have repeatedly failed to predict its consequences or tell the truth about its costs.

The most frightening part is not that every leader involved woke up this morning intending to start World War III. The greater danger is that too many powerful people believe they can keep escalating without losing control. History is crowded with leaders who assumed the other side would back down. It is also crowded with graves dug after they were proven wrong.

There is a political sickness at work here too. War gives failing leaders an opportunity to wrap themselves in the flag, silence criticism, redirect public anger, and disguise recklessness as courage. Bombing becomes leadership. Diplomacy becomes weakness. Anyone asking how the killing ends is accused of helping the enemy.

That is not strength. It is cowardice with military backing.

Real strength would mean admitting that no missile can create a stable Middle East, no bombing campaign can manufacture democracy, and no nuclear power can indefinitely provoke another nuclear alliance without risking catastrophe. Real leadership would mean negotiations, ceasefires, humanitarian corridors, and security that does not depend on terrorizing civilians.

The American public has a responsibility. We cannot let television graphics, patriotic music, and Pentagon vocabulary numb us into treating war like entertainment. We should demand evidence for official claims. We should oppose collective punishment. We should insist that Congress perform its constitutional duty instead of handing decisions of war and peace to Donald Trump or any other president.

Opposing escalation does not mean supporting Iran, Russia, or any other authoritarian government. That is a childish argument used to shut down serious debate. We can condemn dictators, invasions, terrorism, and repression while also opposing policies that multiply death and make a wider war more likely.

Moral seriousness requires it.

World War III has not officially begun. That distinction matters. Panic is not analysis, and fear should never become another weapon used to manipulate the public.

But the smell is real.

It is the smell of burning infrastructure, collapsing diplomacy, wounded national pride, alliance obligations, reckless leaders, and weapons moving faster than human judgment. It is the smell of governments preparing us to accept what should never become normal.

The answer is not despair. The answer is pressure.

Call this what it is. Demand de-escalation. Defend diplomacy before the people who profit from war convince us that peace was never an option.

Because once the room catches fire, it will not matter who struck the first match


“No new wars!”, huh?

Sorta like just about every other promise he’s made in his life.

There was a phrase used to describe WW1- “the war to end all wars”. Twenty years later, the world was back at one another’s throats.

But for eighty years now, the world has tiptoed around the realiZation that another world war might well be the end of civilization.

“The war to end all wars”.

The phrase may end up being absolutely correct.

Without human beings, you can’t have a war.

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