We have seen this movie plenty of times and guess what, we have survived each and every shutdown with the average Citizen barely noticing any effect.

Well, we have a trip to DC that we're taking at the end of the month with the Albabykids. They were very much hoping to go to Air & Space and the National Archives. Those might end up being closed. Certainly not something that affects whether we "survive" the shutdown, but there are still impacts - minor as this is.

You're right that we've seen this movie plenty of times before. And we know the ending. It always ends with the parties pretty much striking the same deal they were looking to strike before the shutdown. It doesn't matter whether the deal is wrecked by Newt Gingrich making a point, or Ted Cruz making a point, or (now) Elon and Vivek making a point: the shutdown puts massive pressure on the majority party of the holdout chamber of Congress, and eventually they have to agree to the terms that are necessary to either get the votes in their chamber or pass the other chamber.

Unless Trump can whip every single Republican, including the ones who vote against CR's as a matter of principle, they need Democratic votes. Those Democratic votes come with Democratic priorities being met. That's what comes with having appropriations power in a Legislative body - you have to put together a deal that a majority of members will support. There's no evidence that such a deal exists on the terms that Musk and Trump have laid down, but we'll see what happens.

But I know what happened the last dozen times we saw this movie, so the most likely outcome is that we end up with something very similar to what was just negotiated. And so the shutdown doesn't accomplish anything (other than create inconvenience for people who want to use non-essential services).