No. of Recommendations: 3
Currencies are extremely hard to predict, to say the least. I have done a lot of FX trading, and I've made money, but it's by far the most difficult and riskiest way I've made money.
One thing to bear in mind is that t he general first result of tariffs, if and to the extent that they come to pass, is to drive up the currency of the importing/tariffing country.
Short term weakness and turbulence may lead to dollar weakness, but there is going to be a strong wind blowing in the other direction soon. If absolutely forced to wager on whether the US dollar would be higher in a year, I'd probably say higher.
Short explanation: a US consumer needs to buy euros in order to buy a nice Burgundy. (the currency on the invoice and the currency that the transfer actually takes place in don't matter: the seller will sell the dollars and buy euros if the buyer didn't). Higher US duties mean lower US imports--that's the whole point, and it works. Lower imports mean lower demand for non-US currencies like the euros in that example. Lower marginal demand for the euro will push it lower relative to the dollar. There may be (will be) other forces pushing the currencies around, but that is what will happen in the proverbial "other things being equal" scenario.
Anybody with a non-zero amount of cash (whether savings or debt) is implicitly, and unavoidably, making a currency wager.
I can suggest a newsletter that is an excellent source of advice on likely currency directions among other things like global equity and bond directions, but I think it starts at about $15000/year. They sell to institutions and don't really have a price list for mere humans.
Jim
